45 percent
of finishes in an average year had a sustained slowdown
Edition by edition, between 38% (2023) and 51% (2019).
Dubai’s 35–40K runs 4% slower than on the typical course.
The median finish ranged from 4:10 in 2024 to 4:22 in 2020.
Fewer metronomes here: 20%, against 28% elsewhere.
- Metronome20%
- Gentle fader27%
- Late fader22%
- Early drifter10%
- Cliff7%
- Fast-start fader15%
Paced most like Dubai: Gold Coast, Washington and Chicago.
Dubai’s 45%: higher than 21 of 22 other courses with three or more editions.
Of Dubai finishes on 4:00 pace through 20K, 12% made 4:00, against 14% elsewhere.
All numbers5 tables
| Finishes | 10,351 |
|---|---|
| Editions | 5 |
| Median finish, average edition | 4:17:15 |
| Sustained slowdown, average edition | 45.0% |
| Second 20K more than 10% slower | 57.9% |
| Median time given back after 20K | +16:18 |
| Year | Race date | Finishes | Median finish | Sustained slowdown | At the start | Dew point | Humidity | Wind | Start time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Jan 22 | 1,852 | 4:19:54 | 49.6% | 58°F | 58°F | 99% | 5.0 mph | 06:30 |
| 2019 | Jan 25 | 1,688 | 4:19:35 | 51.0% | 57°F | 57°F | 99% | 5.7 mph | 06:30 |
| 2020 | Jan 24 | 1,824 | 4:22:06 | 46.3% | 65°F | 60°F | 84% | 7.6 mph | 06:30 |
| 2023 | Feb 12 | 3,742 | 4:14:37 | 38.1% | 57°F | 55°F | 93% | 5.6 mph | 06:00 |
| 2024 | Jan 7 | 1,245 | 4:10:01 | 40.1% | 64°F | 58°F | 79% | 8.4 mph | 06:00 |
| Section | Pace vs. avg. |
|---|---|
| 0–5K | −6.8% |
| 5–10K | −7.2% |
| 10–15K | −6.9% |
| 15–20K | −4.9% |
| 20–25K | −1.9% |
| 25–30K | +1.5% |
| 30–35K | +7.9% |
| 35–40K | +12.6% |
| 40K–finish | +7.2% |
| Goal | Finishes | Made the goal | Sustained slowdown | Given back after 20K | Median finish | 10th–90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | 289 | 14.5% | 26.4% | +6:42 | 3:06:54 | 2:59:16–3:21:52 |
| 3:30 | 688 | 10.5% | 37.9% | +11:13 | 3:41:12 | 3:29:57–4:00:11 |
| 4:00 | 1,024 | 11.8% | 48.0% | +16:41 | 4:16:15 | 3:59:16–4:44:54 |
| 4:30 | 790 | 5.8% | 57.7% | +24:30 | 4:53:52 | 4:33:45–5:24:20 |
| 5:00 | 387 | 7.2% | 57.7% | +29:45 | 5:26:28 | 5:02:53–5:49:04 |
| Pacing type | Dubai | Other courses |
|---|---|---|
| Metronome | 20% | 28% |
| Gentle fader | 27% | 30% |
| Late fader | 22% | 16% |
| Early drifter | 10% | 14% |
| Cliff | 7% | 4% |
| Fast-start fader | 15% | 8% |