46 percent
of finishes in an average year had a sustained slowdown
Edition by edition, between 40% (2013) and 58% (2016), its warmest morning.
Washington’s last stretch runs 6% slower than on the typical course.
The median finish got 17 minutes slower from the first three editions to the last three.
Fewer metronomes here: 17%, against 29% elsewhere.
- Metronome17%
- Gentle fader29%
- Late fader27%
- Early drifter10%
- Cliff7%
- Fast-start fader10%
Paced most like Washington: Dubai, Gold Coast and Madrid.
Washington’s 46%: higher than all 22 other courses with three or more editions.
Of Washington finishes on 4:00 pace through 20K, 8% made 4:00, against 15% elsewhere.
All numbers4 tables
| Finishes | 213,840 |
|---|---|
| Editions | 11 |
| Median finish, average edition | 4:44:34 |
| Sustained slowdown, average edition | 46.1% |
| Second 20K more than 10% slower | 59.0% |
| Median time given back after 20K | +19:03 |
| Year | Race date | Finishes | Median finish | Sustained slowdown | At the start | Dew point | Humidity | Wind | Start time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Oct 26 | 17,385 | 4:35:32 | 41.5% | 44°F | 42°F | 92% | 3.8 mph | 07:55 |
| 2009 | Oct 25 | 19,593 | 4:36:23 | 41.1% | 50°F | 38°F | 64% | 6.5 mph | 07:55 |
| 2010 | Oct 31 | 20,820 | 4:39:28 | 47.5% | 46°F | 37°F | 73% | 5.4 mph | 07:55 |
| 2011 | Oct 30 | 19,708 | 4:37:18 | 40.3% | 32°F | 30°F | 92% | 7.3 mph | 07:55 |
| 2012 | Oct 28 | 21,771 | 4:41:20 | 42.0% | 56°F | 48°F | 73% | 9.6 mph | 07:55 |
| 2013 | Oct 27 | 19,737 | 4:39:37 | 39.9% | 40°F | 34°F | 79% | 5.4 mph | 07:55 |
| 2014 | Oct 26 | 18,995 | 4:48:16 | 50.4% | 53°F | 40°F | 59% | 6.4 mph | 07:55 |
| 2015 | Oct 25 | 21,776 | 4:49:56 | 45.5% | 56°F | 51°F | 84% | 7.0 mph | 07:55 |
| 2016 | Oct 30 | 18,866 | 4:57:42 | 57.8% | 57°F | 53°F | 88% | 6.6 mph | 07:55 |
| 2017 | Oct 22 | 16,195 | 4:53:07 | 56.6% | 52°F | 51°F | 97% | 2.7 mph | 07:55 |
| 2018 | Oct 28 | 18,994 | 4:51:34 | 44.0% | 49°F | 46°F | 90% | 5.5 mph | 07:55 |
| Goal | Finishes | Made the goal | Sustained slowdown | Given back after 20K | Median finish | 10th–90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | 1,950 | 7.7% | 34.3% | +9:09 | 3:10:02 | 3:00:54–3:28:14 |
| 3:30 | 8,803 | 5.5% | 41.5% | +12:43 | 3:43:52 | 3:32:16–4:05:25 |
| 4:00 | 17,674 | 7.8% | 47.1% | +16:50 | 4:17:24 | 4:01:15–4:42:48 |
| 4:30 | 19,229 | 7.5% | 47.1% | +19:44 | 4:50:19 | 4:31:42–5:17:47 |
| 5:00 | 15,141 | 7.7% | 50.8% | +24:54 | 5:24:29 | 5:02:04–5:50:40 |
| Pacing type | Washington | Other courses |
|---|---|---|
| Metronome | 17% | 29% |
| Gentle fader | 29% | 30% |
| Late fader | 27% | 16% |
| Early drifter | 10% | 14% |
| Cliff | 7% | 3% |
| Fast-start fader | 10% | 8% |