Finishes crowd in just under 3:00.
1.7 times
as many finishes as expected in the minute before 3:00
A crowd gathers before every hour and half-hour.
Every finish, minute by minute: the busiest is 3:58.
Against the curve, the minute before every hour and half-hour stands tall; before a quarter-hour like 3:45, it mostly doesn’t.
Tallest of all: the minute before 3:00.
The pull works late, too.
At 40K, a finish is on course for just over 4:00. What share still got under 4:00?
All numbers1 table
The minute before each round mark, against the smooth curve
| Mark | × curve | Finishes | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:30 | 1.43× | 1,701 | 1,193 |
| 2:45 | 0.96× | 5,510 | 5,738 |
| 3:00 | 1.75× | 19,113 | 10,938 |
| 3:15 | 1.11× | 19,262 | 17,363 |
| 3:30 | 1.36× | 32,745 | 24,006 |
| 3:45 | 0.96× | 32,574 | 33,867 |
| 4:00 | 1.29× | 43,814 | 33,907 |
| 4:30 | 1.11× | 29,869 | 26,989 |
| 5:00 | 1.07× | 19,697 | 18,460 |
| 5:30 | 1.06× | 11,105 | 10,512 |
| 6:00 | 1.08× | 6,076 | 5,619 |