From 30K, a 1:00–1:30 gap closed twice as often as from 40K.
42 percent
of finishes 1:00–1:30 back at 30K still beat the runner ahead to the line
Five minutes back at 30K matched one minute back at 40K.
How often a finish beat the runner ahead to the line, by how far back it was.
Up to about 17% slower after 30K, most finishes still gained places.
Pace from 30K to 40K, against the finish’s own 5–20K pace.
Big drops after 30K outnumbered big gains 3 to 1.
Finishes that moved 10 or more places per 100 runners in their race, from 30K to the line.
All numbers3 tables
Beat the runner ahead to the line, by the gap behind
| Behind by | From 30K | From 40K |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00–0:30 | 48% | 43% |
| 0:30–1:00 | 45% | 31% |
| 1:00–1:30 | 42% | 21% |
| 1:30–2:00 | 39% | 14% |
| 2:00–2:30 | 36% | 9% |
| 2:30–3:00 | 33% | 6% |
| 3:00–3:30 | 30% | 4% |
| 3:30–4:00 | 28% | 3% |
| 4:00–4:30 | 25% | 2% |
| 4:30–5:00 | 23% | 1% |
| 5:00–5:30 | 21% | 1% |
| 5:30–6:00 | 20% | 1% |
Median places gained per 100 after 30K, and the share that moved up, by 30–40K pace
| 30–40K pace | Places per 100 | Moved up |
|---|---|---|
| 11% quicker | +10.9 | 100% |
| 9% quicker | +9.9 | 100% |
| 7% quicker | +8.8 | 100% |
| 5% quicker | +7.8 | 100% |
| 3% quicker | +6.5 | 100% |
| 1% quicker | +5.2 | 100% |
| 1% slower | +4.1 | 100% |
| 3% slower | +3.4 | 99% |
| 5% slower | +2.8 | 96% |
| 7% slower | +2.2 | 90% |
| 9% slower | +1.7 | 82% |
| 11% slower | +1.2 | 74% |
| 13% slower | +0.7 | 66% |
| 15% slower | +0.3 | 57% |
| 17% slower | −0.1 | 48% |
| 19% slower | −0.5 | 38% |
| 21% slower | −0.9 | 28% |
| 23% slower | −1.4 | 20% |
| 25% slower | −2.0 | 14% |
| 27% slower | −2.5 | 9% |
| 29% slower | −3.1 | 6% |
| 31% slower | −3.7 | 4% |
| 33% slower | −4.3 | 2% |
| 35% slower | −4.9 | 2% |
| 37% slower | −5.5 | 1% |
| 39% slower | −6.1 | 1% |
| 41% slower | −6.7 | 1% |
Share of finishes by places gained per 100 after 30K
| Places per 100 | Share of finishes |
|---|---|
| More than 29 lost | 0.2% |
| −29 to −28 | 0.0% |
| −28 to −27 | 0.0% |
| −27 to −26 | 0.0% |
| −26 to −25 | 0.0% |
| −25 to −24 | 0.1% |
| −24 to −23 | 0.1% |
| −23 to −22 | 0.1% |
| −22 to −21 | 0.1% |
| −21 to −20 | 0.1% |
| −20 to −19 | 0.1% |
| −19 to −18 | 0.2% |
| −18 to −17 | 0.2% |
| −17 to −16 | 0.2% |
| −16 to −15 | 0.3% |
| −15 to −14 | 0.4% |
| −14 to −13 | 0.4% |
| −13 to −12 | 0.5% |
| −12 to −11 | 0.7% |
| −11 to −10 | 0.8% |
| −10 to −9 | 1.0% |
| −9 to −8 | 1.2% |
| −8 to −7 | 1.6% |
| −7 to −6 | 1.9% |
| −6 to −5 | 2.4% |
| −5 to −4 | 3.1% |
| −4 to −3 | 3.9% |
| −3 to −2 | 5.1% |
| −2 to −1 | 6.9% |
| −1 to 0 | 10.7% |
| 0 to +1 | 13.9% |
| +1 to +2 | 10.4% |
| +2 to +3 | 8.4% |
| +3 to +4 | 6.8% |
| +4 to +5 | 5.3% |
| +5 to +6 | 4.1% |
| +6 to +7 | 3.0% |
| +7 to +8 | 2.1% |
| +8 to +9 | 1.4% |
| +9 to +10 | 0.9% |
| +10 to +11 | 0.6% |
| +11 to +12 | 0.3% |
| +12 to +13 | 0.2% |
| +13 to +14 | 0.1% |
| +14 or more | 0.2% |