Chapter 11 · The next one

Finish-time predictor

A marathon range from a recent race, beside the marathons that passed 20K on its pace or followed the same half.

Example · From a 1:55 half

Typical recreational range: 4:05–4:15The typical recreational range, median 4:11 (9:36/mi).

Every estimate, side by side
4:004:054:104:15Classic formula3:59:46Fitness equations3:57:48The typical range recreational runnersmedian 4:11:41
Published research

Your recent race

Distance

Read as 1 h 55 min · 8:46/mi.

Add a second race optional

A second race at another distance gives an estimate from your own slowdown between them.

Distance
Add training volume optional

Your averages over the 8 weeks before the race you are predicting.

mi / week

All runs, not just easy ones.

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