What happens when a goal slips away?
Among runners initially near a four-hour target at 12.43 mi, 2.7% who first slipped behind its budget at 15.53 mi still broke four hours. For those first behind at 24.85 mi, the rate was 11.1%. These checkpoints select different runners.
Each runner was on or slightly ahead of the target at 12.43 mi, and then first crossed behind it at a later checkpoint.
How we measured it. At 12.43 mi keep elapsed time from 99% through 100% of the target’s even-pace budget. Find the first 15.53, 18.64, 21.75 or 24.85 mi checkpoint where elapsed time exceeds that budget. Divide eventual strict sub-target finishes by all such first-crossing observations.
Full methodology & sources
This uses inferred round-time benchmarks and elapsed chip times. It cannot establish when a runner mentally abandoned a goal. First-crossing groups differ, and results include only complete eligible finishes.
Use complete, strictly increasing elapsed checkpoints at 3.11, 6.21, 9.32, 12.43, 15.53, 18.64, 21.75, 24.85 and 26.22 mi. Clock strings must parse as H:MM:SS or M:SS. No missing splits are interpolated.
Remove exact duplicate race records, ignoring database IDs, ingestion timestamps and source URLs. Retain finishes from 90 minutes to 12 hours with every section between 3.22 and 32.19 minutes/mi. These quality filters can exclude genuine unusual performances; the analysis describes this eligible cohort, not every entrant.
Full source records are available in public GitHub Releases. These chart tables require at least 100 eligible observations per cell for estimate reliability. Counts refer to finishes, linked pairs or event observations as specified in that answer.
These are observational results. Fitness changes, intentions, training, selection into the dataset and unmeasured conditions can explain differences. Outcome percentiles describe variation among performances, not confidence intervals or advice about the best strategy.
Apply the reviewed source-quality edition exclusions for this exact export after the timing checks. Known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unreconciled HOLD editions and a selected top-finisher field do not contribute to the analyses or prior benchmarks. Report source exclusions separately; an already invalid timing row is not counted twice. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not exclude an otherwise eligible finish from the overall cohort. Other sparse editions are not declared incomplete merely from their size.
Still finished under the target
Percent (%)
View exact values and sample sizes
| First checkpoint behind budget (mi) | Still finished under the target | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | 2.7% | 46,115 |
| 30 | 4% | 16,945 |
| 35 | 5% | 9,127 |
| 40 | 11.1% | 5,487 |