The study

Do runners bunch just before round-number finish times?

Compare the recorded finishes in the minute before and the minute after each milestone.

3,328,159 eligible finishes

How we measured it. Half-open one-minute windows immediately before and after 3:00, 3:30 and 4:00. These counts use eligible complete finishes. They do not reveal declared goals or establish a psychological mechanism.

Full methodology & sources

Marathons, years and recorded data. Chart samples may be smaller than the eligible analysis cohort.

Current study results, methods and source checksums (JSON)Study methodology

Finishes beside common milestones

finishes

Minute beforeMinute after
3:00
Minute before15,741 finishes
Minute after9,051 finishes
3:30
Minute before26,670 finishes
Minute after20,929 finishes
4:00
Minute before35,714 finishes
Minute after26,495 finishes
View exact values and sample sizes
GroupMinute beforeMinute afterMinute before: ObservationsMinute after: Observations
3:0015,741 finishes9,051 finishes3,328,1593,328,159
3:3026,670 finishes20,929 finishes3,328,1593,328,159
4:0035,714 finishes26,495 finishes3,328,1593,328,159

All research questions