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use eligible elapsed finish times in one-minute bins. The expected count in the minute before a mark comes from a Poisson log-cubic fitted to the ±25 minutes around it, leaving out five minutes before and ten after the mark and short windows around other 10- and 15-minute marks. Ratio intervals resample whole race editions (200 draws). The cliff index compares the step from the minute before a mark to the minute after with the neighbouring minute-to-minute steps. The 40 km view projects each finish from its 40 km time at its own 35–40 km pace; its comparison uses finishes projected away from round marks with the same decile of 35–40 km slowing. None of these are goals, predictions or causal estimates."}