{"schema_version":1,"mode":"all-finishers","release_tag":"private-export-20261021-1050","input_as_of":"2026-10-21T15:02:30Z","as_of":"2026-10-21T16:23:57Z","input_asset_sha256":"6df47d5538023003271a89c289332e964aa136e34b3770ecffd2e704cc8490e5","input_manifest_sha256":"b6572a8bd8daf408546e80d2dce69dfd92cf74d318c77bf0de4c71cfeba136db","runner_manifest_sha256":"cd2c99d7140d3f32700200901ab21e6d1d10b6b450254a0739382a59e6db028c","runner_manifest_as_of":"2026-10-21T16:10:31Z","scripts":{"build_fast_start_all.py":"55e341722531aa78f779ba0f8cd07a212cf1883768705f81d4c8b5e2441ceea5","build_fast_start.py":"8d9132f6d60b3e32a666a08143e6efa34c669d27ac370b85fc5b0b93c610b3a2"},"source_scripts":{"build_public_explorer.py":"2c6909bc054a7a8ed26bc9e8176739e056558a1cddbe633510b28a8689329d28","build_runner_lookup.py":"2caf15e0d85a080c913e23b42d0b82fa462c3abab32f7a5e309bda6c612f9eb6","build_pacing.py":"d799a3c92f7ce00d4dae7a20d145a0904486e3e186f9c342c3182a3f7926039b","build_extended.py":"f919a2e6c72e49a4c51b9e5c7e7e1374a43fc90e12107dd20263a362f80015ac","source_quality.py":"de261132399ea492dd128c28d43d0502d21c5ab3a46235af2c17e083471c6b65"},"engine":"NumPy 2.5.3","cohort":{"deduplicated":5327504,"complete":4445238,"increasing":4420140,"timing_eligible":4407710,"eligible":4108749,"source_quality_excluded":298961,"raw":5327504,"duplicates_removed":0,"missing_or_unparsed":882266,"non_increasing":25098,"outside_quality_bounds":12430},"linkage":{"feature_rows":5327504,"safe_identity_groups":3522317,"record_join_method":"canonical_record_id","canonical_id_contract_verified":true,"candidate_link_rows":3777174,"natural_key_candidate_rows":0,"canonical_id_candidate_rows":3777174,"ambiguous_cross_export_matches":0,"linked_eligible_finishes":3777174,"recent_benchmark_finishes":648914,"consecutive_cross_year_pairs":681266,"linked_with_supplied_date":3777174},"source_quality":{"version":1,"release_tag":"private-export-20261021-1050","reviewed_edition_policy":true,"editions":[{"city":"Honolulu","year":2016,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.","raw_records":20118,"deduplicated_records":20118,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"Rotterdam","year":2012,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.","raw_records":7542,"deduplicated_records":7542,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"Eindhoven","year":2009,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.","raw_records":1407,"deduplicated_records":1407,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"Eindhoven","year":2010,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.","raw_records":1462,"deduplicated_records":1462,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"New York","year":2008,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD while it re-checks the official finisher count: 38,047 records against 37,790 listed finishers.","raw_records":38047,"deduplicated_records":38047,"timing_eligible_excluded":37387},{"city":"Valencia","year":2017,"category":"incomplete_ingestion","reason":"Source audit marks HOLD: 3,373 listed detail pages missing; the observed records also lack 20 km.","raw_records":12485,"deduplicated_records":12485,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"Valencia","year":2018,"category":"incomplete_ingestion","reason":"Producer handoff retains an incomplete/HOLD status; the edition also lacks the observed 20 km checkpoint.","raw_records":19236,"deduplicated_records":19236,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"Tokyo","year":2026,"category":"selected_field","reason":"Source notes identify top-500 result PDFs, not a representative full marathon field; the 770 records are all men.","raw_records":770,"deduplicated_records":770,"timing_eligible_excluded":770},{"city":"Amsterdam","year":2023,"category":"incomplete_ingestion","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD for a re-pull of the finish times: the finish was loaded for only 17 of 16,030 records, although 40 km is present for 16,008, so the 14 complete grids are what is left, not a sample of the field.","raw_records":16030,"deduplicated_records":16030,"timing_eligible_excluded":14},{"city":"Melbourne","year":2015,"category":"incomplete_ingestion","reason":"Only about 500 of the roughly 6,000 finishers were loaded, from individual result pages, and 24 runners appear two or three times under name variants; the records are neither the full field nor a sample of it.","raw_records":502,"deduplicated_records":502,"timing_eligible_excluded":416},{"city":"Boston","year":2013,"category":"selected_field","reason":"The race was stopped after the bombings near the finish, so the recorded finishers are only those who finished before the course closed (none slower than 4:45). A finisher set cut off by finish time is not comparable with other editions.","raw_records":17580,"deduplicated_records":17580,"timing_eligible_excluded":17510},{"city":"Tokyo","year":2016,"category":"selected_field","reason":"Exactly 500 women and 500 men, the first 500 of each to finish (the last at 3:35:49): a top-finisher list, not the full field of more than 30,000 finishers.","raw_records":1000,"deduplicated_records":1000,"timing_eligible_excluded":999},{"city":"Tokyo","year":2017,"category":"selected_field","reason":"Exactly 500 women and 500 men, the first 500 of each to finish (the last at 3:29:26): a top-finisher list, not the full field of more than 30,000 finishers.","raw_records":1000,"deduplicated_records":1000,"timing_eligible_excluded":999},{"city":"Tokyo","year":2018,"category":"selected_field","reason":"Exactly 500 women and 500 men, the first 500 of each to finish (the last at 3:27:07): a top-finisher list, not the full field of more than 30,000 finishers.","raw_records":1000,"deduplicated_records":1000,"timing_eligible_excluded":987},{"city":"Paris","year":2014,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"This release rewrote the edition’s 10–40 km checkpoints in place; 25 km is now blank for about 99% of records, and the 40 complete grids left of 38,672 finishes include leftover impossible timings, so they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":38672,"deduplicated_records":38672,"timing_eligible_excluded":40},{"city":"Paris","year":2015,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"This release rewrote the edition’s 10–40 km checkpoints in place; 25 km is now blank for about 98% of records, and the 70 complete grids left of 40,261 finishes include leftover impossible timings, so they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":40261,"deduplicated_records":40261,"timing_eligible_excluded":70},{"city":"Paris","year":2016,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"This release rewrote the edition’s 10–40 km checkpoints in place; 25 km is now blank for about 97% of records, and the 526 complete grids left of 41,795 finishes include leftover impossible timings, so they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":41795,"deduplicated_records":41795,"timing_eligible_excluded":526},{"city":"Paris","year":2017,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"This release rewrote the edition’s 10–40 km checkpoints in place; 25 km is now blank for about 99% of records, and the 11 complete grids left of 41,734 finishes include leftover impossible timings, so they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":41734,"deduplicated_records":41734,"timing_eligible_excluded":11},{"city":"Paris","year":2018,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"This release rewrote the edition’s 10–40 km checkpoints in place; 25 km is now blank for about 98% of records, and the 11 complete grids left of 42,522 finishes include leftover impossible timings, so they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":42522,"deduplicated_records":42522,"timing_eligible_excluded":11},{"city":"New York","year":2007,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The 25–40 km checkpoints are missing for about a third of finishers, and 40% of the complete grids have an impossible last section (checkpoint times include the start delay, the finish does not). The 40% of finishers that pass the timing checks are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":38462,"deduplicated_records":38462,"timing_eligible_excluded":15398},{"city":"Barcelona","year":2019,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The checkpoint times include the start delay but the finish does not: half of the complete grids have an impossible last section, and the finishers that pass the timing checks are mostly the faster, earlier starters (80% of the quarter with the shortest finish times, 18% of the quarter with the longest).","raw_records":13445,"deduplicated_records":13445,"timing_eligible_excluded":5535},{"city":"Eindhoven","year":2026,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"Our audit, not the producer, flags this edition: its checkpoints mix two timing bases (the 5 km reading came from separate runner pages). 1,880 of 4,466 complete grids put the finish at or before 40 km, and the rows that pass the timing checks still run 5–10 km up to about 30% slower than 10–15 km.","raw_records":4471,"deduplicated_records":4471,"timing_eligible_excluded":1521},{"city":"Gold Coast","year":2024,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The 35 km mat stopped recording partway through the field: 35 km is missing for 2,729 of 8,665 finishers, almost all of them slower ones, so complete timings survive for 95% of the quarter with the shortest finish times but 1% of the quarter with the longest.","raw_records":9905,"deduplicated_records":9905,"timing_eligible_excluded":5692},{"city":"Auckland","year":2018,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The 40 km mat stopped recording partway through the field: 40 km is missing for 685 of 1,654 finishers, so complete timings survive for 97% of the quarter with the shortest finish times and none of the quarter with the longest.","raw_records":1917,"deduplicated_records":1917,"timing_eligible_excluded":915},{"city":"Dubai","year":2025,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The 40 km mat stopped recording late in the race: 40 km is missing for 267 of 1,809 finishers, almost all of them slower ones, so complete timings survive for nearly all of the three quarters with the shortest finish times but 41% of the quarter with the longest.","raw_records":1809,"deduplicated_records":1809,"timing_eligible_excluded":1534},{"city":"London","year":2015,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: only 1,200 of about 37,793 official finishers were loaded, without 5 km splits, so no finish has a complete set of checkpoint timings.","raw_records":1200,"deduplicated_records":1200,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"London","year":2016,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: only 909 of about 39,140 official finishers were loaded, without 5 km splits, so no finish has a complete set of checkpoint timings.","raw_records":909,"deduplicated_records":909,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"London","year":2017,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: only 1,520 of about 39,487 official finishers were loaded, without 5 km splits, so no finish has a complete set of checkpoint timings.","raw_records":1520,"deduplicated_records":1520,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"London","year":2018,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: only 33,995 of about 40,220 official finishers were loaded, without 5 km splits, so no finish has a complete set of checkpoint timings.","raw_records":33995,"deduplicated_records":33995,"timing_eligible_excluded":0},{"city":"London","year":2021,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 22,226 of 35,596 official finishers were loaded (37.6% short), and women are 37% of them against 42–44% in 2019, 2025 and 2026. Held until the producer re-pulls it.","raw_records":22226,"deduplicated_records":22226,"timing_eligible_excluded":21929},{"city":"London","year":2022,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 31,145 of 40,619 official finishers were loaded (23.3% short), and women are 39% of them against 42–44% in 2019, 2025 and 2026. Held until the producer re-pulls it.","raw_records":31145,"deduplicated_records":31145,"timing_eligible_excluded":30878},{"city":"London","year":2023,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 34,064 of 43,965 official finishers were loaded (22.5% short), and women are 31% of them against 42–44% in 2019, 2025 and 2026. Held until the producer re-pulls it.","raw_records":34064,"deduplicated_records":34064,"timing_eligible_excluded":33381},{"city":"London","year":2024,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 46,567 of 53,000 official finishers were loaded (12.1% short). Held until the producer re-pulls it.","raw_records":46567,"deduplicated_records":46567,"timing_eligible_excluded":46160},{"city":"Stockholm","year":2025,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 17,051 of 18,864 official finishers were loaded (9.6% short). Held until the producer re-pulls it.","raw_records":17051,"deduplicated_records":17051,"timing_eligible_excluded":16977},{"city":"Vienna","year":2022,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 2,574 of 4,803 official finishers were loaded (46.4% short), and the producer is checking whether the official count includes other categories. Held until the two are reconciled.","raw_records":2574,"deduplicated_records":2574,"timing_eligible_excluded":2546},{"city":"Vienna","year":2023,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 5,659 of 6,111 official finishers were loaded (7.4% short), and the producer is checking whether the official count includes other categories. Held until the two are reconciled.","raw_records":5659,"deduplicated_records":5659,"timing_eligible_excluded":5643},{"city":"Vienna","year":2024,"category":"unreconciled_hold","reason":"Producer marks this edition HOLD: 6,111 of 7,459 official finishers were loaded (18.1% short), and the producer is checking whether the official count includes other categories. Held until the two are reconciled.","raw_records":6115,"deduplicated_records":6115,"timing_eligible_excluded":6004},{"city":"Madrid","year":2023,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The producer flags the 25 km mat as sitting about 0.6 km early, so every finisher’s 20–25 km section is short and 25–30 km long; the checkpoint timings do not measure the sections they are labelled with.","raw_records":7405,"deduplicated_records":7405,"timing_eligible_excluded":6914},{"city":"Auckland","year":2017,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"The producer flags the 30 km mat as sitting about 0.4 km late, so every finisher’s 25–30 km section is long and 30–35 km short; the checkpoint timings do not measure the sections they are labelled with.","raw_records":1836,"deduplicated_records":1836,"timing_eligible_excluded":1520},{"city":"Chicago","year":2005,"category":"invalid_split_grid","reason":"15 km is missing for 58.7% of finishers, more often for those with shorter finish times, so complete timings survive for 16% of the quarter with the shortest finish times and 52% of the quarter with the longest: they are not a sample of the field.","raw_records":32868,"deduplicated_records":32868,"timing_eligible_excluded":13007},{"city":"Chicago","year":2007,"category":"selected_field","reason":"The race was cut short in the heat: the course closed after about 3.5 hours and runners still on it were re-routed. The producer flags 1,734 recorded finishes, missing their 30–40 km checkpoints, as finishes on a shortened course, and no recorded finish is slower than 7:13 (8:15 or later in every other Chicago year). A finisher set cut off when a race was stopped is not comparable with other editions.","raw_records":25517,"deduplicated_records":25517,"timing_eligible_excluded":23667}],"policy_sha256":"ba7749ee0f83896ed925fb771b71e3c86a1d493ab9c941884206ab8063ee2508","script_sha256":"de261132399ea492dd128c28d43d0502d21c5ab3a46235af2c17e083471c6b65"},"raw_records":5327504,"eligible_records":4108749,"analysis_n":4108749,"history_n":648914,"eligible_without_prior_n":3459835,"min_cell":100,"reference":{"opening_km":5,"baseline_start_km":5,"baseline_end_km":20},"points_km":[5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,42.195],"onset_starts_km":[20,25,30,35],"bands":[{"id":"fast10","label":"More than 10% faster","lower":null,"upper":-10,"lower_inclusive":false,"upper_inclusive":false},{"id":"fast5","label":"5–10% faster","lower":-10,"upper":-5,"lower_inclusive":true,"upper_inclusive":false},{"id":"fast2","label":"2–5% faster","lower":-5,"upper":-2,"lower_inclusive":true,"upper_inclusive":false},{"id":"steady","label":"Within 2%","lower":-2,"upper":2,"lower_inclusive":true,"upper_inclusive":true},{"id":"slow2","label":"2–5% slower","lower":2,"upper":5,"lower_inclusive":false,"upper_inclusive":true},{"id":"slow5","label":"More than 5% slower","lower":5,"upper":null,"lower_inclusive":false,"upper_inclusive":false}],"cities":["All courses","Amsterdam","Athens","Auckland","Austin","Barcelona","Berlin","Boston","Chicago","Cologne","Copenhagen","Dubai","Eindhoven","Frankfurt","Gold Coast","Hamburg","Helsinki","Honolulu","London","Madrid","Melbourne","Mexico City","New York","Oslo","Paris","Prague","Rotterdam","Singapore","Stockholm","Sydney","Tokyo","Valencia","Vienna","Warsaw","Washington"],"ages":["all","18–24","25–29","30–34","35–39","40–44","45–49","50–54","55–59","60–64","65–69","70–74","75–79","80–84","85–89"],"genders":["all","Men","Women"],"prior_bands":["all"],"methodology_prose":["Verify every published runner shard checksum and size, all source calculation hashes, record and profile uniqueness, and raw, eligible and profile counts against the adopted runner manifest. Include every eligible finish independently of earlier history or cross-race identity. History counts are source provenance only and do not select this analysis cohort.","Use actual recorded timings only. Held, incomplete and invalid timings cannot supply outcomes. Counts describe race performances, not unique runners. Missing demographics do not exclude an otherwise eligible finish from All.","Opening change is 100 × ((first 5 km elapsed time / 5) / ((20 km elapsed time − 5 km elapsed time) / 15) − 1). The first section is excluded from its 5–20 km comparison baseline. Six fixed percentage bands describe opening pace relative to later early-race pace, not verified fitness or a physiological threshold for starting too fast. Exact decimal source-time subtraction and cross-products classify boundaries without rounding recorded times.","The primary time outcome is elapsed time after 20 km minus 22.195 times the 5–20 km baseline pace. It does not reuse the first 5 km in the outcome. Its 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles describe individual observed differences, not confidence intervals, predicted finish times or causal losses.","A whole-marathon even-pace reference is 42.195 times that same 5–20 km pace. Finish difference is actual finish minus this reference. Opening difference is actual first 5 km minus 5 times the baseline pace. The after-20 km difference is the remaining difference: their means sum to mean finish difference because the baseline section contributes zero by construction. This is signed arithmetic accounting, not an attainable alternative finish.","Section curves show the median of individual section pace differences from each race’s 5–20 km baseline. Separate section medians need not form a single race or add to a median finish. Late pace change compares 30 km–finish with that same baseline. The actual finish median describes each group without selecting runners by their final times.","Sustained slowdown means at least 25% slower than the 5–20 km baseline for contiguous recorded sections totaling at least 5 km after 20 km, with a 1e−12 ratio rounding tolerance. The final 2.195 km cannot qualify alone. First qualifying sections start at 20, 25, 30 or 35 km. The rate denominator is every eligible finish in the displayed opening group; onset shares use only detected finishes. Timing mats locate a section, not the exact instant of slowing.","Course, exact-age band and recorded-gender roll-ups are recalculated directly from their records. There is no earlier-time, target-time or current-finish filter. Unknown demographics remain in All, with no invented subgroup. Each opening group needs at least 100 finishes; onset distributions additionally need at least 100 detected finishes. Sparse filters are unavailable and never silently broadened.","This method identifies a quick first section relative to the following 15 km; it cannot detect every overly ambitious start, including a pace maintained through 20 km. The same 5–20 km baseline contributes to both opening classification and later outcomes, so baseline variation, early slowing, terrain, congestion, conditions, training and fitness can shape the association. Results do not establish a causal time penalty or an optimal strategy. 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