What can my checkpoint time tell me?
Put a moment in the race into context. Compare your elapsed time with runners who reached the same checkpoint at a similar time.
How to read this
The finish-time range describes historical runners at similar progress. The required pace is calculated directly from your entered time and target.
Keep in mind
Only runners with complete finishes are represented. This is historical context, not your personal probability of finishing.
How we calculated this
Match course, available age/gender groups, checkpoint and a two-minute elapsed-time band at 12.43, 18.64 or 21.75 mi. Optional recent-3.11-mi pace is classified relative to elapsed average pace using ±2%. The previous-marathon filter is not used because this comparison conditions on current-race progress. Show historical finish percentiles and the fraction below the visitor’s threshold, not a calibrated personal probability. Only complete eligible finishers are represented.
Runner comparison groups contain at least 100 eligible observations. Broader comparisons are labeled; a finish can belong to a runner with several races. Elevation describes the supplied course profile.
We check the raw timings and apply reviewed source-quality rules before forming these groups. Editions with known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unresolved source checks or a selected field are excluded. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not remove an otherwise eligible finish from the overall comparison.
Input data: Marathon results, weather and course data. Read the full methods in source units or browse the marathons, years and data fields.